AI & Strategy

AI Build vs Buy Break-Even Calculator

Calculate the exact financial break-even point where in-house AI engineering beats commercial LLM API SaaS subscription costs over multi-year horizons.

Interactive Web App Open in Google Sheets ↗ Download Excel (.xlsx) ↓
Build Parameters
6 devs
Number of full-time dedicated software engineers.
$150,000
Annual base salary per developer (national median: $135,980).
2 PMs
Number of dedicated technical product and project managers.
$95,000
Annual base salary per PM (national median: $102,320).
6 months
Estimated calendar months to ship the v1 capability.
Empirical IT schedule and budget slippage risk multiplier.
1 FTEs
Dedicated engineering staff required to maintain the built system.
$135,980
Annual salary per maintenance engineer (BLS median: $135,980).
$0
Lost business value or unrealized monthly savings during the build.
Buy Parameters
Expected monthly prompt invocations or API requests.
Vendor API model tier rate card for prompt execution.
2,000 tokens
Average prompt, retrieved context, and system prompt tokens.
500 tokens
Average tokens generated by the model per transaction.
0%
Share of input served from prompt cache (90% discount on cache hits).
0%
Share of traffic run via asynchronous Batch API (50% discount).
$500
Initial vendor onboarding, proof of concept, and API integration cost.
Timeline & Horizon
36 months
Evaluation horizon to assess total cost of ownership.
Decision Verdict Primary Decision Gate
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Break-Even Crossover
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Break-Even Monthly Volume
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Total Build Investment
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Net Monthly Operational Savings
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Unit Cost Multiplier (Buy vs Build)
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Why I Built This: The Hidden Payroll of "Free" In-House Software

In enterprise architecture, teams often justify building custom in-house software or self-hosted AI pipelines by comparing server bills directly against vendor SaaS license quotes. They overlook the real expense: ongoing maintenance engineering payroll.

This calculator calculates the true break-even volume by factoring in fully loaded engineering salaries, maintenance headcount, schedule overrun risks, and serverless compute floors.

Architectural Assumptions & Mechanics

  1. Fully Loaded Payroll: Base engineering salaries are loaded at 1.4445x using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ECEC data to capture benefits, taxes, and overhead.
  2. Schedule Slippage Reality: Software projects frequently exceed initial timelines. The model defaults to 1.00x with 1.27x mean industry overrun and 3.00x tail risk options based on empirical research (Bent Flyvbjerg).
  3. Maintenance Floor: Maintenance is modeled in real engineering headcount (FTEs). Even a single dedicated maintenance engineer creates a significant ongoing payroll baseline.
  4. API Rate Cards: Vendor costs reflect current enterprise LLM token pricing (Anthropic Claude rate cards) with prompt caching and batch execution discounts.
  5. Serverless Unit Costs: Internal execution costs are modeled at an AWS serverless baseline floor of $0.00000128 per transaction.
  6. The Break-Even Threshold: At low or moderate transaction volume, maintenance payroll alone usually dwarfs third-party API invoices. Custom builds only yield positive ROI once transaction volume scales past the calculated break-even point.
Newsletter Companion

The Productivity Dividend

Read the complete article and analytical deep-dive on LinkedIn.

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